2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 3 – Key Questions)

The reason I started writing this blog was to make sure that I can record my thinking and then learn from it in the future depending on how the outcomes evolve. In the previous blog, I have outlined an asset allocation for 2021. However, by no means is it perfect – I have tons ofContinue reading “2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 3 – Key Questions)”

2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 2 – Asset Classes)

The starting point for constructing the portfolio for early 2021 starts from considering the themes that I have outlined earlier. There are three steps to consider: (1) Laying out the asset classes which will respond well to these themes, (2) Understanding the allocations between these asset classes, (3) Identifying where things might go wrong andContinue reading “2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 2 – Asset Classes)”

2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 1 – Themes)

As the year comes to a close, I wanted to pen down some thoughts to guide myself towards positioning for the first half of the next year, at least. Broadly, I would like to take a deductive approach of starting from hypothesis of what could go right and wrong, and then use that as theContinue reading “2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 1 – Themes)”

Behavior Biases – A Checklist

Human emotions and behaviors are hard to understand. In order to truly understand why someone did something, it may critical to understand the influencers and biases of human behaviors. This is “System 1” thinking driving behavioral biases. This blog is an attempt to list out the various behavioral influences that force us human beings intoContinue reading “Behavior Biases – A Checklist”

Inflation in the medium term

Many experts have raised the specter of inflation, starting from as early as late 2020 to more likely 2-3 years out. While I am not accomplished enough to make a prediction, I will attempt to lay out what the consensus view is on inflation trajectory. What makes it harder to predict is that there isContinue reading “Inflation in the medium term”

Will the equities keep going up despite valuation?

Equities have been on an upward swing, and Davey day trader says that stocks only go up. Clearly that is not true over periods of 1,2,5 years or even some decades. We will focus on what is driving the US equities up, and what is the medium to long term outlook. A lot of peopleContinue reading “Will the equities keep going up despite valuation?”

Pandemic portfolio for US Investors (part 2)

The portfolio for this new paradigm needs to resist dollar devaluation, a potential increase in inflation, while positioning to capture the upside from current and future liquidity injections. Such a portfolio will have to maintain equity exposure (both US and international), position for inflation through commodities and TIPS, hedge against dollar devaluation through Gold whileContinue reading “Pandemic portfolio for US Investors (part 2)”

Pandemic portfolio for US Investors (part 1)

US is entering into a new paradigm for investing. This new paradigm is defined by (1) continuing low rates, (2) augmented by significant money printing by the Fed and (3) a potentially painful long recovery post pandemic. The last decade for US investors has been stellar. Going forward, however, the expected returns for the standardContinue reading “Pandemic portfolio for US Investors (part 1)”