Human emotions and behaviors are hard to understand. In order to truly understand why someone did something, it may critical to understand the influencers and biases of human behaviors. This is “System 1” thinking driving behavioral biases. This blog is an attempt to list out the various behavioral influences that force us human beings intoContinue reading “Behavior Biases – A Checklist”
Many experts have raised the specter of inflation, starting from as early as late 2020 to more likely 2-3 years out. While I am not accomplished enough to make a prediction, I will attempt to lay out what the consensus view is on inflation trajectory. What makes it harder to predict is that there isContinue reading “Inflation in the medium term”
Equities have been on an upward swing, and Davey day trader says that stocks only go up. Clearly that is not true over periods of 1,2,5 years or even some decades. We will focus on what is driving the US equities up, and what is the medium to long term outlook. A lot of peopleContinue reading “Will the equities keep going up despite valuation?”
The portfolio for this new paradigm needs to resist dollar devaluation, a potential increase in inflation, while positioning to capture the upside from current and future liquidity injections. Such a portfolio will have to maintain equity exposure (both US and international), position for inflation through commodities and TIPS, hedge against dollar devaluation through Gold whileContinue reading “Pandemic portfolio for US Investors (part 2)”
US is entering into a new paradigm for investing. This new paradigm is defined by (1) continuing low rates, (2) augmented by significant money printing by the Fed and (3) a potentially painful long recovery post pandemic. The last decade for US investors has been stellar. Going forward, however, the expected returns for the standardContinue reading “Pandemic portfolio for US Investors (part 1)”
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