Where do we go from here in the next 6 months?

Answer is who the hell knows! In this super complex world, this year market has been on a precipitous decline with Russia, China, pandemic, and supply chain issues in the mix. However, for fun and games, let me lay out a framework. Broadly, in the near term (next 6 months), I would expect a recessionContinue reading “Where do we go from here in the next 6 months?”

Confessions – My Mistakes In Investing

I started “investing” in the stock market over 10 years ago. It was essentially a game at that point, because I treated it as a roulette – assuming I can time the market and trading on whimsical ideas and hearsay more than anything else. I was curious and wanted to improve my understanding of theContinue reading “Confessions – My Mistakes In Investing”

2021 Q1 Thoughts and Rebalancing

Given its been about 3 full months since I suggested the allocations for 2021, I feel its time to revisit and rebalance and perhaps add some more layers to the portfolio reconstruction. Here is the baseline asset allocation that I suggested in December 2020. I will use this as the frame for changes. This allocationContinue reading “2021 Q1 Thoughts and Rebalancing”

2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 3 – Key Questions)

The reason I started writing this blog was to make sure that I can record my thinking and then learn from it in the future depending on how the outcomes evolve. In the previous blog, I have outlined an asset allocation for 2021. However, by no means is it perfect – I have tons ofContinue reading “2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 3 – Key Questions)”

2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 2 – Asset Classes)

The starting point for constructing the portfolio for early 2021 starts from considering the themes that I have outlined earlier. There are three steps to consider: (1) Laying out the asset classes which will respond well to these themes, (2) Understanding the allocations between these asset classes, (3) Identifying where things might go wrong andContinue reading “2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 2 – Asset Classes)”

2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 1 – Themes)

As the year comes to a close, I wanted to pen down some thoughts to guide myself towards positioning for the first half of the next year, at least. Broadly, I would like to take a deductive approach of starting from hypothesis of what could go right and wrong, and then use that as theContinue reading “2021 Portfolio Thoughts (Part 1 – Themes)”

Behavior Biases – A Checklist

Human emotions and behaviors are hard to understand. In order to truly understand why someone did something, it may critical to understand the influencers and biases of human behaviors. This is “System 1” thinking driving behavioral biases. This blog is an attempt to list out the various behavioral influences that force us human beings intoContinue reading “Behavior Biases – A Checklist”

Inflation in the medium term

Many experts have raised the specter of inflation, starting from as early as late 2020 to more likely 2-3 years out. While I am not accomplished enough to make a prediction, I will attempt to lay out what the consensus view is on inflation trajectory. What makes it harder to predict is that there isContinue reading “Inflation in the medium term”